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Washington NationalsCurtis Mead Runs
Stats updated: Jul 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Curtis Mead has gone over 0.5 R in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Country
- Australia
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Runs · season avg 0.6 R · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListCurtis Mead isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Wrist Fracture
- Est. return:
- Sep 11, 2026
Mead was placed on the 10-day injured list Wednesday after suffering the injury when he was hit by a pitch Monday night against the Athletics. The 25-year-old is anticipated to be sidelined for roughly 6-to-8 weeks, but Wednesday's news makes the earlier end of that time frame is more likely.
Verdict
vs 0.5 RRunsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.7 R(×0.97 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.8 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season69 games
43%over
30 over · 39 under
High confidence95% CI 32%–55%Alternate lines — Runs (R)
R over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 43% | 30/69 | |
| 13% | 9/69 | ||
| 3% | 2/69 | ||
| 3% | 2/69 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 R by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home41%15/37Medium
Away47%15/32Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)43%17/40Medium
1 day47%7/15Low
2 days40%4/10Low
3+ days67%2/3Low
Next matchup — vs CIN
Aug 8, 2026
10thof 30 in R allowed to hitters
CIN pitching allows 4.7 R per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Curtis Mead has gone over 0.5 R 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 43% across the full season. CIN has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 10th-most R of 30 teams (4.7 per game). His game-to-game R have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Nationals Park · Washington Nationals
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.00)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Runs (R)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 R). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.
More Curtis Mead research
Curtis Mead — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Mead Total Bases→
Total Bases hit rates and trends.
Mead Home Runs→
Home Runs hit rates and trends.
Mead RBIs→
RBIs hit rates and trends.
Mead Stolen Bases→
Stolen Bases hit rates and trends.
Pitching Allowed by team→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
MLB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.