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Pittsburgh PiratesEndy Rodríguez Total Bases
Stats updated: Aug 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Endy Rodríguez has gone over 1.5 TB in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Total Bases · season avg 1.8 TB · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListEndy Rodríguez isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Hip Surgery
- Est. return:
- May 1, 2027
The transaction clears space on the 40-man roster for the addition of Christian Bethancourt. Rodriguez underwent season-ending surgery last week to repair the labrum in his left hip.
Verdict
vs 1.5 TBTotal BasesNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)76supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
2.1 TB(×0.99 context)
L5 2.4 · L10 1.6 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 3.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season34 games
41%over
14 over · 20 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–58%Alternate lines — Total Bases (TB)
TB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 23/34 | ||
| 1.5Current | 41% | 14/34 | |
| 29% | 10/34 | ||
| 21% | 7/34 | ||
| 12% | 4/34 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 TB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home42%5/12Low
Away41%9/22Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%4/12Low
1 day43%6/14Low
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days33%1/3Low
With a teammate out
How this TB line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Esmerlyn Valdez out · Left Hamstring Strain-1.0 TB when he sits
Without (14g)
1.2 TB
29% over 1.5
With (20g)
2.2 TB
50% over 1.5
Next matchup — vs STL
Sep 22, 2026
13thof 30 in TB allowed to hitters
STL pitching allows 13.5 TB per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Endy Rodríguez has gone over 1.5 TB 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 41% across the full season. STL has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 13th-most TB of 30 teams (13.5 per game). His game-to-game TB have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
PNC Park · Pittsburgh Pirates
neutral (runs ×0.97, HR ×0.90)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.
More Endy Rodríguez research
Endy Rodríguez — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Rodríguez Home Runs→
Home Runs hit rates and trends.
Rodríguez RBIs→
RBIs hit rates and trends.
Rodríguez Runs→
Runs hit rates and trends.
Rodríguez Stolen Bases→
Stolen Bases hit rates and trends.
Pitching Allowed by team→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
MLB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.