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San Francisco GiantsWilly Adames
#2 · SS · 6-0 · 216 lb · 120 games
Stats updated: Aug 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.9 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListWilly Adames isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Elbow Sprain
- Est. return:
- Sep 22, 2026
The Giants have been eliminated from postseason contention, but it doesn't appear as though Adames, who was placed on the 10-day injured list Aug. 24 due to a left elbow sprain, has been shut down for the season just yet. Following Monday's matchup, San Francisco will have five games remaining, so it's possible the star shortstop could return before the end of the campaign in an effort to end the year on a high note. However, it's not clear if the club would be willing to activate Adames with nothing left to play for.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)84supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.9 H(×0.82 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
70%over
14 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–85%Season120 games
61%over
73 over · 47 under
High confidence95% CI 52%–69%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 61% | 73/120 | |
| 22% | 26/120 | ||
| 5% | 6/120 | ||
| 1% | 1/120 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home61%35/57High
Away60%38/63High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)60%59/98High
1 day80%12/15Medium
2 days0%0/2Low
3+ days67%2/3Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Matt Chapman out · Not Specified Abdomen Surgery
Without (41g)
0.8 H
66% over 0.5
With (79g)
0.9 H
58% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs MIN
Sep 22, 2026
8thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
MIN pitching allows 8.5 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 157 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Willy Adames has gone over 0.5 H 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 61% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 8th-most H of 30 teams (8.5 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 61%.