San Francisco Giants

Willy Adames Stolen Bases

Stats updated: Aug 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Willy Adames has gone over 0.5 SB in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: Dominican Republic
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksStolen Bases · season avg 0.0 SB · our line

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Injured ListWilly Adames isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Elbow Sprain
Est. return:: Sep 22, 2026

The Giants have been eliminated from postseason contention, but it doesn't appear as though Adames, who was placed on the 10-day injured list Aug. 24 due to a left elbow sprain, has been shut down for the season just yet. Following Monday's matchup, San Francisco will have five games remaining, so it's possible the star shortstop could return before the end of the campaign in an effort to end the year on a high note. However, it's not clear if the club would be willing to activate Adames with nothing left to play for.

Verdict

vs 0.5 SBStolen Bases

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 97% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

0.0 SB(×0.82 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2020 games

15%over

3 over · 17 under

Medium confidence95% CI 5%–36%

Season120 games

4%over

5 over · 115 under

High confidence95% CI 2%–9%

Alternate lines — Stolen Bases (SB)

SB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate SB line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	4%	5/120
	0%	0/120
	0%	0/120
	0%	0/120

Last 20 games — SB per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 SB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home5%3/57High

Away3%2/63High

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)5%5/98High

1 day0%0/15High

2 days0%0/2Low

3+ days0%0/3Low

With a teammate out

How this SB line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Matt Chapman out · Not Specified Abdomen Surgery+0.1 SB when he sits

Without (41g)

0.1 SB

12% over 0.5

With (79g)

0.0 SB

0% over 0.5

Next matchup — vs MIN

Sep 22, 2026

3rdof 30 in SB allowed to hitters

MIN pitching allows 0.9 SB per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 157 games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Willy Adames has gone over 0.5 SB 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 4% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 3rd-most SB of 30 teams (0.9 per game). His game-to-game SB have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants

pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 4%.