Loading…
Houston DynamoAntônio Carlos
#3 · D · 6' 3" · 172 lb · 13 games
Stats updated: May 24, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Shots · season avg 0.5 SH · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 SHShotsCool underFireFactor 32/100· model 77% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line77supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
0.3 SH(×1.07 context)
L5 0.0 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2013 games
31%over
4 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 13%–58%Season13 games
31%over
4 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 13%–58%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 31% | 4/13 | |
| 15% | 2/13 | ||
| 0% | 0/13 | ||
| 0% | 0/13 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%2/6Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
2 days0%0/3Low
3+ days44%4/9Low
Next matchup — @ NE
Aug 8, 2026
6thof 32 in SH allowed to defenders
NE allows 0.5 SH per game to defenders (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 86 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Antônio Carlos has gone over 0.5 SH 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 31% across the full season. NE has been a favorable matchup for defenders this season, allowing the 6th-most SH of 32 teams (0.5 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 31%.