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CF MontréalBrayan Ceballos
#3 · D · 6' 0" · 161 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Jul 22, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Shots · season avg 0.3 SH · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 SHShotsCold underFireFactor 56/100· model 78% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line78supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.3 SH
L5 0.2 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 0.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 109 games
22%over
2 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–55%Last 209 games
22%over
2 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–55%Season9 games
22%over
2 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–55%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 22% | 2/9 | |
| 11% | 1/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home17%1/6Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days25%2/8Low
Last matchup — vs TOR
Jul 22, 2026
11thof 32 in SH allowed to defenders
TOR allows 0.5 SH per game to defenders (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 85 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 9 games, Brayan Ceballos has gone over 0.5 SH 2 of 9 decided times (22%) — versus 22% across the full season. TOR has been a middling matchup for defenders this season, allowing the 11th-most SH of 32 teams (0.5 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 22%.