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CF MontréalDante Sealy
#17 · F · 5' 10" · 174 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Shots · season avg 1.5 SH · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SHShotsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
1.9 SH(×1.14 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.7 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season24 games
42%over
10 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 24%–61%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 16/24 | ||
| 1.5Current | 42% | 10/24 | |
| 25% | 6/24 | ||
| 13% | 3/24 | ||
| 4% | 1/24 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home58%7/12Low
Away25%3/12Medium
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days42%8/19Medium
Next matchup — vs CIN
Sep 26, 2026
5thof 32 in SH allowed to forwards
CIN allows 1.8 SH per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 106 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Dante Sealy has gone over 1.5 SH 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 42% across the full season. CIN has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 5th-most SH of 32 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.