Red Bull NY

Emil Forsberg Shots on Target

Stats updated: Aug 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Emil Forsberg has gone over 0.5 SOT in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Line

PrizePicksShots on Target · season avg 0.6 SOT · our line

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Verdict

vs 0.5 SOTShots on Target

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 51% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it

Projection vs line51neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.7 SOT

L5 0.6 · L10 0.6 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2017 games

47%over

8 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%

Season17 games

47%over

8 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%

Alternate lines — Shots on Target (SOT)

SOT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate SOT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	47%	8/17
	18%	3/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17

Last 17 games — SOT per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 SOT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home56%5/9Low

Away38%3/8Low

Days since last game

2 days67%2/3Low

3+ days38%5/13Low

Last matchup — vs ORL

Aug 1, 2026

3rdof 32 in SOT allowed to midfielders

ORL allows 0.5 SOT per game to midfielders (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 102 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Emil Forsberg has gone over 0.5 SOT 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 47% across the full season. ORL has been a favorable matchup for midfielders this season, allowing the 3rd-most SOT of 32 teams (0.5 per game). His game-to-game SOT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.