Loading…
LA GalaxyErik Thommy
#27 · LF · 5' 9" · 159 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Jul 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Shots · season avg 1.8 SH · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SHShotsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 47% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)77supports it
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.4 SH
L5 1.0 · L10 1.8 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 3.2
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Season10 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 1.5Current | 60% | 6/10 | |
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 20% | 2/10 | ||
| 0% | 0/10 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days63%5/8Low
Last matchup — vs LAFC
Jul 18, 2026
10thof 32 in SH allowed to midfielders
LAFC allows 1.0 SH per game to midfielders (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 121 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Erik Thommy has gone over 1.5 SH 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. LAFC has been a favorable matchup for midfielders this season, allowing the 10th-most SH of 32 teams (1.0 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.