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LA GalaxyHirving Lozano
#11 · F · 5' 9" · 152 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Shots · season avg 2.1 SH · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SHShotsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
2.1 SH(×0.95 context)
L5 2.8 · L10 2.1 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 1.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — vs COL
Sep 27, 2026
25thof 32 in SH allowed to forwards
COL allows 1.4 SH per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 116 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Hirving Lozano has gone over 1.5 SH 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. COL has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 25th-most SH of 32 teams (1.4 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.