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AustinJon Gallagher
#17 · D · 5' 9" · 159 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: Aug 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Linepays more
Shots · season avg 0.6 SH · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Shots (SH)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Verdict
vs 2.5 SHShotsNo readFireFactor 1/100· model 5% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line9argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.5 SH
L5 0.4 · L10 0.6 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
10%over
1 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%Last 2018 games
6%over
1 over · 17 under
High confidence95% CI 1%–26%Season18 games
6%over
1 over · 17 under
High confidence95% CI 1%–26%Situational splits
Over 2.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home13%1/8Medium
Away0%0/10Medium
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
2 days0%0/2Low
3+ days7%1/14Medium
Last matchup — @ COL
Aug 1, 2026
27thof 32 in SH allowed to defenders
COL allows 0.3 SH per game to defenders (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 80 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jon Gallagher has gone over 2.5 SH 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 6% across the full season. COL has been a tough matchup for defenders this season, allowing the 27th-most SH of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 6%.