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D.C. UnitedKeisuke Kurokawa
#6 · D · 5' 8" · 152 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: Aug 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Shots · season avg 0.3 SH · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 SHShotsCool underFireFactor 40/100· model 68% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)92supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.4 SH
L5 0.6 · L10 0.5 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2018 games
33%over
6 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 16%–56%Season18 games
33%over
6 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 16%–56%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 33% | 6/18 | |
| 0% | 0/18 | ||
| 0% | 0/18 | ||
| 0% | 0/18 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away22%2/9Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days31%4/13Medium
Last matchup — vs NSH
Aug 1, 2026
24thof 32 in SH allowed to defenders
NSH allows 0.4 SH per game to defenders (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 88 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Keisuke Kurokawa has gone over 0.5 SH 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 33% across the full season. NSH has been a tough matchup for defenders this season, allowing the 24th-most SH of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.