Loading…
Chicago FireRobert Lewandowski
#9 · F · 6' 1" · 179 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Aug 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Shots · season avg 2.3 SH · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3 SHShotsCool underFireFactor 44/100· model 70% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line70supports it
Consistency11argues against it
Projection
2.5 SH
L5 2.3 · L10 2.3 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.4 · ceil 3.2
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 103 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 203 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Season3 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 3Current | 33% | 1/3 | |
| 0% | 0/2 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 |
Situational splits
Over 3 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
Last matchup — vs CLT
Aug 1, 2026
8thof 32 in SH allowed to forwards
CLT allows 1.6 SH per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 71 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 3 games, Robert Lewandowski has gone over 3 SH 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. CLT has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 8th-most SH of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.