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Seattle SoundersYeimar Gómez
#28 · D · 6' 2" · 203 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Mar 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Linepays more
Shots · season avg 1.3 SH · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SHShotsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 31% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)45neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.3 SH
L5 1.3 · L10 1.3 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.4
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 103 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 203 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Season3 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 1.5Current | 33% | 1/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Last matchup — @ STL
Mar 8, 2026
15thof 32 in SH allowed to defenders
STL allows 0.4 SH per game to defenders (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 90 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 3 games, Yeimar Gómez has gone over 1.5 SH 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. STL has been a middling matchup for defenders this season, allowing the 15th-most SH of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.