NBA FireFactor Accuracy
The settled ledger: for each of the last 10 completed slate days, the strongest pre-game FireFactor leans — recomputed from only the game logs available before that slate — checked against what actually happened. Every row links to the player’s full read.
Side
Showing all leans — 131 of 274 landed (48%).
Nov 7, 2026
15 of 34 landed- ✓Jarace WalkerO 10.5 PRAgot 16
- ✓Nickeil Alexander-WalkerO 19.5 PTSgot 20
- ✓Keldon JohnsonO 4.5 REBgot 7
- ✓Luke KennardO 5.5 PTSgot 11
- ✗Miles BridgesO 15.5 PTSgot 13
- ✗Toumani CamaraO 10.5 PTSgot 4
- ✗Julius RandleO 20.5 PTSgot 19
- ✗Donovan ClinganO 10.5 PTSgot 6
- ✓Amen ThompsonO 14.5 PTSgot 17
- ✓Karl-Anthony TownsO 19.5 PTSgot 29
- ✗Jamal MurrayO 2.5 3PMgot 2
- ✗Sidy CissokoO 4.5 PTSgot 4
- ✓Wendell Carter Jr.O 8.5 REBgot 11
- ✓Kevin DurantU 3.5 ASTgot 3
- ✗Onyeka OkongwuO 7.5 REBgot 2
- ✓Deandre AytonU 4.5 PTSgot 2
- ✗Harrison BarnesO 1.5 3PMgot 1
- ✗Jalen BrunsonU 26.5 PTSgot 31
- ✗Will RichardO 5.5 PTSgot 4
- ✓DeMar DeRozanU 21.5 FSgot 19.7
- ✗Brandin PodziemskiO 15.5 PTSgot 15
- ✗Mikal BridgesU 2.5 ASTgot 4
- ✗Tristan da SilvaU 4.5 REBgot 7
- ✗Collin GillespieU 3.5 ASTgot 4
- ✓Jordan ClarksonO 9.5 FSgot 11.4
- ✗Jay HuffO 1.5 3PMgot 0
- ✓Dyson DanielsO 36.5 FSgot 50.5
- ✗De'Aaron FoxO 33.5 FSgot 25.6
- ✓Julian ChampagnieU 20.5 FSgot 18.8
- ✓Gary Payton IIU 2.5 REBgot 0
- ✗Oso IghodaroO 17.5 PRAgot 13
- ✗CJ McCollumO 3.5 ASTgot 3
- ✓Carter BryantU 14.5 FSgot 13.3
- ✗Jabari Smith Jr.U 5.5 REBgot 9
Nov 6, 2026
22 of 45 landed- ✗Jaime Jaquez Jr.O 14.5 PTSgot 14
- ✗Quentin GrimesO 6.5 PTSgot 2
- ✗Derik QueenO 6.5 REBgot 4
- ✓Jaden McDanielsO 2.5 ASTgot 5
- ✗Cam SpencerO 4.5 ASTgot 0
- ✓Royce O'NealeO 6.5 PTSgot 7
- ✗Sandro MamukelashviliO 8.5 PTSgot 7
- ✗Kel'el WareO 9.5 PTSgot 4
- ✓Saddiq BeyO 12.5 PTSgot 17
- ✗Ace BaileyO 12.5 PTSgot 12
- ✗Max ChristieO 2.5 REBgot 1
- ✗Rudy GobertO 26.5 FSgot 24.2
- ✗Naz ReidO 7.5 REBgot 6
- ✗Deandre AytonU 4.5 PTSgot 8
- ✗Naji MarshallO 11.5 PTSgot 7
- ✗Myles TurnerO 10.5 PTSgot 0
- ✓Keldon JohnsonO 4.5 REBgot 6
- ✗Dyson DanielsU 5.5 ASTgot 12
- ✓Sam HauserO 6.5 PTSgot 9
- ✓Precious AchiuwaO 8.5 PTSgot 9
- ✓Ja'Kobe WalterU 13.5 PTSgot 7
- ✓Payton PritchardO 2.5 REBgot 6
- ✓Onyeka OkongwuO 8.5 REBgot 10
- ✗VJ EdgecombeO 5.5 REBgot 3
- ✗Ryan RollinsO 1.5 3PMgot 1
- ✓Brice SensabaughU 3.5 REBgot 2
- ✓LaMelo BallU 4.5 REBgot 2
- ✗Josh OkogieU 1.5 3PMgot 2
- ✗Donovan ClinganU 1.5 3PMgot 3
- ✓Toumani CamaraU 1.5 ASTgot 1
- ✓Jake LaRaviaO 19.5 FSgot 23.1
- ✗Julian ChampagnieO 19.5 FSgot 18.4
- ✓Derrick WhiteO 4.5 ASTgot 5
- ✗Hugo GonzálezO 3.5 REBgot 1
- ✓Jaylen BrownO 3.5 ASTgot 5
- ✓Bones HylandU 3.5 ASTgot 0
- ✓Nickeil Alexander-WalkerO 20.5 PTSgot 28
- ✓CJ McCollumU 16.5 PTSgot 4
- ✗De'Aaron FoxO 33.5 FSgot 21.4
- ✗Baylor ScheiermanO 20.5 FSgot 11.6
- ✓Sion JamesU 3.5 REBgot 3
- ✓Harrison BarnesO 16.5 FSgot 17.2
- ✓Jamal SheadO 19.5 FSgot 42.6
- ✓Carter BryantU 14.5 FSgot 0
- ✗Nique CliffordO 2.5 ASTgot 2
Nov 5, 2026
6 of 10 landed- ✓Miles BridgesO 24.5 PRAgot 36
- ✗Bam AdebayoU 9.5 REBgot 10
- ✗Brandin PodziemskiO 16.5 PTSgot 9
- ✓Wendell Carter Jr.O 8.5 REBgot 13
- ✓Collin GillespieU 3.5 REBgot 2
- ✗Desmond BaneO 3.5 3PMgot 3
- ✓Will RichardO 5.5 PTSgot 10
- ✗Tim Hardaway Jr.O 6.5 PTSgot 0
- ✓Tristan da SilvaO 11.5 PTSgot 18
- ✓Gary Payton IIU 2.5 REBgot 0
Nov 4, 2026
26 of 58 landed- ✓Jaime Jaquez Jr.O 13.5 PTSgot 18
- ✗Matas BuzelisO 12.5 PTSgot 12
- ✗Derrick WhiteU 17.5 PTSgot 24
- ✗Quentin GrimesO 7.5 PTSgot 6
- ✓Julius RandleO 19.5 PTSgot 22
- ✗Moussa DiabatéO 8.5 PTSgot 7
- ✓Jaden McDanielsO 2.5 ASTgot 4
- ✓Cam SpencerO 4.5 ASTgot 9
- ✗Scottie BarnesO 22.5 PTSgot 17
- ✗Brice SensabaughO 7.5 PTSgot 6
- ✗Amen ThompsonO 15.5 PTSgot 11
- ✗Kel'el WareO 9.5 PTSgot 2
- ✗Precious AchiuwaO 6.5 REBgot 3
- ✓Naz ReidO 7.5 REBgot 9
- ✓Ryan RollinsO 3.5 ASTgot 5
- ✗Ja'Kobe WalterO 3.5 REBgot 1
- ✓Miles BridgesO 15.5 PTSgot 18
- ✓Ausar ThompsonO 10.5 PTSgot 11
- ✗Jaylen BrownO 3.5 ASTgot 1
- ✗Dyson DanielsU 5.5 ASTgot 8
- ✓Payton PritchardU 3.5 REBgot 1
- ✗Neemias QuetaU 1.5 ASTgot 3
- ✓Keldon JohnsonO 4.5 REBgot 5
- ✗Sion JamesU 10.5 PRAgot 13
- ✓Kevin DurantU 22.5 PTSgot 21
- ✓Derik QueenO 6.5 REBgot 9
- ✓Jamal MurrayO 5.5 ASTgot 7
- ✓Javonte GreenU 1.5 3PMgot 0
- ✓Tim Hardaway Jr.U 1.5 ASTgot 0
- ✓Onyeka OkongwuO 8.5 REBgot 16
- ✓Jalen BrunsonU 6.5 ASTgot 4
- ✓Duncan RobinsonO 14.5 PTSgot 27
- ✗Karl-Anthony TownsO 20.5 PTSgot 17
- ✓Rudy GobertO 10.5 REBgot 11
- ✓Jamal SheadO 4.5 ASTgot 6
- ✓Nickeil Alexander-WalkerU 3.5 ASTgot 2
- ✗Sam HauserO 2.5 REBgot 2
- ✗Jarace WalkerU 6.5 REBgot 8
- ✗Gradey DickO 3.5 REBgot 2
- ✗Jake LaRaviaO 19.5 FSgot 19.4
- ✗Mikal BridgesU 2.5 ASTgot 4
- ✗Ronald Holland IIO 16.5 PRAgot 5
- ✓Daniss JenkinsO 3.5 ASTgot 4
- ✗Julian ChampagnieO 19.5 FSgot 12.3
- ✗Bones HylandU 3.5 ASTgot 4
- ✗Hugo GonzálezO 3.5 REBgot 2
- ✗Brook LopezU 1.5 3PMgot 2
- ✓CJ McCollumU 16.5 PTSgot 15
- ✓VJ EdgecombeO 10.5 PTSgot 11
- ✗Kris DunnU 4.5 REBgot 5
- ✓LaMelo BallU 6.5 ASTgot 6
- ✗Baylor ScheiermanU 4.5 REBgot 11
- ✓Jay HuffO 1.5 3PMgot 2
- ✗Sandro MamukelashviliO 12.5 PTSgot 2
- ✗Jabari Smith Jr.O 28.5 FSgot 26.8
- ✗Harrison BarnesO 16.5 FSgot 6.4
- ✗Bub CarringtonO 10.5 PRAgot 3
- ✗Nique CliffordO 2.5 ASTgot 0
Nov 2, 2026
26 of 54 landed- ✗Quentin GrimesO 7.5 PTSgot 7
- ✓Jamal SheadO 4.5 ASTgot 6
- ✗Ronald Holland IIO 2.5 REBgot 2
- ✗Moussa DiabatéO 7.5 PTSgot 7
- ✗Matas BuzelisO 14.5 PTSgot 4
- ✗Rudy GobertO 10.5 REBgot 10
- ✗Amen ThompsonO 15.5 PTSgot 14
- ✗Kel'el WareO 9.5 PTSgot 2
- ✓Jaime Jaquez Jr.O 13.5 PTSgot 19
- ✗Brice SensabaughO 9.5 PTSgot 7
- ✗Naz ReidO 7.5 REBgot 6
- ✓Karl-Anthony TownsO 11.5 REBgot 16
- ✗Brandin PodziemskiO 4.5 ASTgot 2
- ✗Jaylen BrownU 21.5 PTSgot 25
- ✓Kevin DurantU 2.5 3PMgot 0
- ✗Duncan RobinsonU 2.5 ASTgot 3
- ✗Daniss JenkinsO 9.5 PTSgot 2
- ✗VJ EdgecombeO 6.5 REBgot 3
- ✓Jaden McDanielsO 5.5 REBgot 6
- ✗Sion JamesU 10.5 PRAgot 18
- ✗Jalen BrunsonO 22.5 PTSgot 19
- ✓Jarace WalkerU 15.5 PTSgot 15
- ✓Derik QueenO 6.5 REBgot 7
- ✗Nickeil Alexander-WalkerU 3.5 REBgot 4
- ✓Bub CarringtonO 11.5 FSgot 15.8
- ✓Wendell Carter Jr.U 1.5 ASTgot 0
- ✗Cam SpencerO 7.5 ASTgot 7
- ✓Julian ChampagnieU 1.5 ASTgot 0
- ✗Sam HauserO 2.5 REBgot 2
- ✓Jeremiah FearsO 3.5 REBgot 4
- ✓Mikal BridgesU 2.5 ASTgot 0
- ✗Kris DunnO 4.5 ASTgot 1
- ✓Javonte GreenU 1.5 3PMgot 1
- ✗Jabari Smith Jr.O 14.5 PTSgot 14
- ✗Jay HuffU 5.5 REBgot 8
- ✓Dyson DanielsU 4.5 ASTgot 4
- ✓Tristan da SilvaU 4.5 REBgot 4
- ✓Onyeka OkongwuU 13.5 PTSgot 13
- ✓Tim Hardaway Jr.U 1.5 ASTgot 0
- ✓DeMar DeRozanU 2.5 REBgot 0
- ✓Bones HylandU 3.5 ASTgot 3
- ✗Baylor ScheiermanU 1.5 3PMgot 3
- ✗Bam AdebayoU 8.5 REBgot 9
- ✓Saddiq BeyO 3.5 REBgot 5
- ✗Desmond BaneO 33.5 FSgot 27.1
- ✗AJ GreenU 2.5 ASTgot 3
- ✓Ryan RollinsU 26.5 FSgot 16.6
- ✓Brook LopezU 1.5 3PMgot 1
- ✓Keldon JohnsonO 4.5 REBgot 7
- ✓Gradey DickU 4.5 REBgot 4
- ✓Jamal MurrayO 5.5 ASTgot 6
- ✓Jake LaRaviaU 20.5 FSgot 19.8
- ✗CJ McCollumU 20.5 PRAgot 34
- ✗Nique CliffordO 2.5 ASTgot 0
Nov 1, 2026
4 of 12 landed- ✗Jarace WalkerO 22.5 FSgot 19.7
- ✓Scottie BarnesU 5.5 ASTgot 5
- ✗Jay HuffO 7.5 PTSgot 0
- ✗Kris DunnO 4.5 ASTgot 4
- ✗Tristan da SilvaU 4.5 3PMgot 5
- ✗Brook LopezO 9.5 PTSgot 7
- ✗Sam HauserO 2.5 REBgot 2
- ✗Jamal SheadU 6.5 PTSgot 9
- ✗Baylor ScheiermanU 1.5 3PMgot 2
- ✓Wendell Carter Jr.O 8.5 REBgot 10
- ✓Gradey DickU 4.5 REBgot 1
- ✓Quentin GrimesU 12.5 PTSgot 7
Oct 31, 2026
12 of 22 landed- ✗Jaden McDanielsO 5.5 REBgot 3
- ✗Nickeil Alexander-WalkerO 2.5 3PMgot 0
- ✓Kevin DurantU 2.5 3PMgot 0
- ✓Kel'el WareO 9.5 PTSgot 19
- ✓Ryan RollinsU 2.5 3PMgot 1
- ✓Sion JamesU 10.5 PRAgot 7
- ✓CJ McCollumU 22.5 PRAgot 18
- ✓Onyeka OkongwuU 23.5 PRAgot 17
- ✗Jabari Smith Jr.U 5.5 REBgot 9
- ✗VJ EdgecombeU 1.5 3PMgot 2
- ✗AJ GreenO 12.5 FSgot 5.6
- ✓Royce O'NealeO 3.5 REBgot 6
- ✓Bones HylandO 2.5 ASTgot 3
- ✗Saddiq BeyU 23 FSgot 42.7
- ✗Amen ThompsonO 16.5 PTSgot 8
- ✗Julian ChampagnieU 11.5 PTSgot 12
- ✗Precious AchiuwaO 21.5 PRAgot 12
- ✓Jaylen BrownU 36.5 FSgot 29.8
- ✓Cam SpencerO 18.5 PRAgot 28
- ✓Naz ReidU 33.5 FSgot 22
- ✓Dyson DanielsU 22.5 PRAgot 15
- ✗Nique CliffordO 2.5 ASTgot 2
Oct 30, 2026
13 of 19 landed- ✗Matas BuzelisO 25.5 FSgot 19.5
- ✗Sion JamesU 17 FSgot 23
- ✓Jaden McDanielsO 3.5 REBgot 6
- ✓Jarace WalkerU 11.5 REBgot 6
- ✓Jamal MurrayU 11.5 ASTgot 5
- ✓Jay HuffU 14.5 PTSgot 13
- ✓DeMar DeRozanU 5.5 REBgot 1
- ✓Scottie BarnesU 5.5 ASTgot 5
- ✗Bub CarringtonU 2.5 REBgot 4
- ✓Duncan RobinsonO 23 FSgot 33.8
- ✓Karl-Anthony TownsO 35.5 PRAgot 37
- ✓Jalen BrunsonO 19.5 PTSgot 24
- ✗Naz ReidO 16.5 PTSgot 12
- ✗Quentin GrimesO 9.5 PTSgot 3
- ✓Sam HauserO 1.5 3PMgot 2
- ✓Jamal SheadU 7.5 PTSgot 2
- ✓Tim Hardaway Jr.U 1.5 ASTgot 1
- ✗Royce O'NealeO 3.5 REBgot 3
- ✓Bones HylandO 2.5 ASTgot 8
Oct 29, 2026
3 of 5 landed- ✓Precious AchiuwaO 10.5 PTSgot 24
- ✓Cam SpencerO 2.5 ASTgot 8
- ✗Nickeil Alexander-WalkerO 2.5 ASTgot 1
- ✓CJ McCollumO 2.5 ASTgot 8
- ✗Nique CliffordO 2.5 ASTgot 1
Oct 28, 2026
4 of 15 landed- ✓Sion JamesU 16.5 FSgot 14.9
- ✗Jarace WalkerO 17.5 PRAgot 16
- ✗Jake LaRaviaU 4.5 REBgot 10
- ✓Tim Hardaway Jr.U 14.5 PTSgot 14
- ✓Matas BuzelisO 13.5 PTSgot 17
- ✗Jalen BrunsonU 26.5 PTSgot 38
- ✗Brandin PodziemskiO 15.5 PTSgot 8
- ✗Quentin GrimesU 12.5 PTSgot 23
- ✓CJ McCollumU 17.5 PTSgot 13
- ✗Bub CarringtonO 1.5 3PMgot 0
- ✗Julian ChampagnieU 4.5 REBgot 6
- ✗Jay HuffO 10.5 PTSgot 3
- ✗Kel'el WareO 10.5 PTSgot 6
- ✗Nickeil Alexander-WalkerO 3.5 ASTgot 1
- ✗Royce O'NealeO 1.5 ASTgot 0
How to read this honestly: rows are recomputed after the fact from the same public game logs the live board uses, settled at the line a book actually posted for that slate where we still have it (hover a line to see which) and at our own book-style half-point line otherwise. They omit the matchup / Vegas / pace context the live board folds in, because that context can’t be faithfully reconstructed later — so these are conservative reads. A small sample of settled days proves nothing either way; the point is transparency, not a win-rate claim. Descriptive research — never predictions, picks, or betting advice. See the methodology for the exact math.