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Utah JazzAce Bailey
#19 · F · 6-9 · 200 lb · 33 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2025 · Rd 1, Pick 5
- College
- Rutgers
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 17.8 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 17.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency38argues against it
Projection
18.3 PTS(×1.01 context)
L5 16.0 · L10 22.8 · med 21.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 13.0 · ceil 21.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season33 games
52%over
17 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 35%–67%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61% | 20/33 | ||
| 55% | 18/33 | ||
| 52% | 17/33 | ||
| 17.5Current | 52% | 17/33 | |
| 45% | 15/33 | ||
| 33% | 11/33 | ||
| 24% | 8/33 |
Situational splits
Over 17.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home61%11/18Medium
Away40%6/15Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day53%8/15Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days46%6/13Low
Last matchup — @ OKC
Apr 5, 2026
30thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
OKC allows 12.7 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 174 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ace Bailey has gone over 17.5 PTS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 52% across the full season. OKC has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 30th-most PTS of 30 teams (12.7 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 52%.