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Washington WizardsAlex Sarr
#20 · C · 7-0 · 205 lb · 36 games
Stats updated: Mar 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2024 · Rd 1, Pick 2
- College
- Washington Wizards
- Country
- France
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 17.9 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Alex Sarr's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Foot Surgery
The 21-year-old big man is currently recovering from foot surgery but is expected to be ready for training camp after averaging 16.3 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.0 blocks in 48 regular-season appearances last year. Sarr remains a major part of the franchise's long-term plans, although the additions of established veterans could reduce some offensive responsibilities. His defensive upside should continue to provide substantial fantasy value if he can stay healthy.
Verdict
vs 17.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 53% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency38argues against it
Projection
16.5 PTS(×1.00 context)
L5 16.8 · L10 18.6 · med 16.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 14.0 · ceil 24.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season36 games
50%over
18 over · 18 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–66%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 26/36 | ||
| 64% | 23/36 | ||
| 53% | 19/36 | ||
| 17.5Current | 50% | 18/36 | |
| 47% | 17/36 | ||
| 36% | 13/36 | ||
| 28% | 10/36 |
Situational splits
Over 17.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home47%9/19Medium
Away53%9/17Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/5Medium
1 day63%12/19Medium
2 days60%3/5Low
3+ days50%3/6Low
With a teammate out
How this PTS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jamir Watkins out · Left Knee-0.9 PTS when he sits
Without (23g)
17.6 PTS
52% over 17.5
With (13g)
18.5 PTS
46% over 17.5
Last matchup — vs MIA
Feb 8, 2026
18thof 30 in PTS allowed to centers
MIA allows 13.0 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 58 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Alex Sarr has gone over 17.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a middling matchup for centers this season, allowing the 18th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.