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Houston RocketsAmen Thompson
#1 · G-F · 6-7 · 200 lb · 41 games
Stats updated: Apr 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2023 · Rd 1, Pick 4
- College
- Overtime Elite
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 19.4 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 18.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 45% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency48neutral
Projection
22.8 PTS(×0.99 context)
L5 22.6 · L10 21.0 · med 18.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 14.0 · ceil 23.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season41 games
49%over
20 over · 21 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–64%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 31/41 | ||
| 71% | 29/41 | ||
| 66% | 27/41 | ||
| 18.5Current | 49% | 20/41 | |
| 44% | 18/41 | ||
| 34% | 14/41 | ||
| 32% | 13/41 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home62%13/21Medium
Away35%7/20Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%2/4Low
1 day36%4/11Low
2 days57%4/7Low
3+ days56%10/18Medium
Last matchup — vs MIN
Apr 10, 2026
13thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
MIN allows 14.0 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 223 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Amen Thompson has gone over 18.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 49% across the full season. MIN has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 13th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 49%.