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Philadelphia 76ersAndre Drummond
#1 · C · 6-11 · 279 lb · 33 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2012 · Rd 1, Pick 9
- College
- Connecticut
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 14 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 8.3 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 8.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency16argues against it
Projection
8.0 PTS(×0.94 context)
L5 7.8 · L10 7.3 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.0 · ceil 12.6
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season33 games
48%over
16 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–65%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 22/33 | ||
| 52% | 17/33 | ||
| 52% | 17/33 | ||
| 8.5Current | 48% | 16/33 | |
| 45% | 15/33 | ||
| 33% | 11/33 | ||
| 30% | 10/33 |
Situational splits
Over 8.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home54%7/13Low
Away45%9/20Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day56%5/9Low
2 days100%3/3Low
3+ days41%7/17Medium
Last matchup — vs MIL
Apr 12, 2026
29thof 30 in PTS allowed to centers
MIL allows 11.2 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 55 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Andre Drummond has gone over 8.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 48% across the full season. MIL has been a tough matchup for centers this season, allowing the 29th-most PTS of 30 teams (11.2 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.