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Minnesota TimberwolvesAnthony Edwards
#5 · G · 6-4 · 225 lb · 12 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 9 of these 12 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2020 · Rd 1, Pick 1
- College
- Georgia
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 30.6 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAnthony Edwards isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Knee Surgery
- Est. return:
- Dec 21, 2026
Edwards underwent debridement surgery in Minnesota, though the team did not provide a timetable for his return. The star guard is expected to make a full recovery, with additional updates coming as he progresses through rehabilitation. Based on previous reporting from ESPN's Shams Charania, Edwards could miss up to two months. Edwards was off to a scorching start this season, averaging 33.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.0 steals across four appearances.
Verdict
vs 32.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency38argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
35.1 PTS(×1.08 context)
L5 33.6 · L10 31.5 · med 35.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 19.4 · ceil 41.8
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 32.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 |
Situational splits
Over 32.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day50%3/6Low
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs UTA
Nov 9, 2026
9thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
UTA allows 13.0 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 30 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Anthony Edwards has gone over 32.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. UTA has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 9th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 11.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.