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Detroit PistonsAusar Thompson
#9 · G-F · 6-7 · 205 lb · 33 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2023 · Rd 1, Pick 5
- College
- Overtime Elite
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 11.8 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 11.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency40argues against it
Projection
11.0 PTS(×1.06 context)
L5 10.0 · L10 10.9 · med 9.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 7.4 · ceil 15.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season33 games
48%over
16 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–65%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 23/33 | ||
| 67% | 22/33 | ||
| 61% | 20/33 | ||
| 11.5Current | 48% | 16/33 | |
| 39% | 13/33 | ||
| 30% | 10/33 | ||
| 24% | 8/33 |
Situational splits
Over 11.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%8/16Medium
Away47%8/17Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low
1 day70%7/10Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days35%6/17Medium
Last matchup — @ ORL
Apr 6, 2026
1stof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
ORL allows 15.4 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 235 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ausar Thompson has gone over 11.5 PTS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 48% across the full season. ORL has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 1st-most PTS of 30 teams (15.4 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.