Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo Points + Rebounds + Assists

Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Bam Adebayo has gone over 37.5 PRA in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2017 · Rd 1, Pick 14
College: Kentucky
Country: USA
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPoints + Rebounds + Assists · season avg 37.7 PRA · our line

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Game-Time DecisionConfirm Bam Adebayo's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Back Not Specified

While Adebayo may sacrifice some scoring volume, Antetokounmpo's ability to collapse defenses should create more efficient scoring opportunities, and the duo projects to form one of the league's premier defensive frontcourts. Adebayo nursed a back issue to end the 2025-26 season, but he should be a full go for training camp.

Verdict

vs 37.5 PRAPoints + Rebounds + Assists

No readFireFactor 7/100· model 54% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral

Projection vs line54neutral

Consistency42neutral

Projection

40.0 PRA(×1.04 context)

L5 37.4 · L10 43.8 · med 40.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 29.0 · ceil 43.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

70%over

7 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%

Last 2020 games

60%over

12 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%

Season32 games

50%over

16 over · 16 under

Medium confidence95% CI 34%–66%

Alternate lines — Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA)

PRA over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PRA line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	59%	19/32
	56%	18/32
	50%	16/32
37.5Current	50%	16/32
	50%	16/32
	41%	13/32
	31%	10/32

Last 20 games — PRA per game vs. line 37.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 37.5 PRA by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home47%7/15Low

Away53%9/17Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low

1 day50%6/12Low

2 days50%2/4Low

3+ days54%7/13Low

Last matchup — @ WAS

Apr 10, 2026

3rdof 30 in PRA allowed to centers

WAS allows 26.7 PRA per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 61 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Bam Adebayo has gone over 37.5 PRA 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 50% across the full season. WAS has been a favorable matchup for centers this season, allowing the 3rd-most PRA of 30 teams (26.7 per game). His game-to-game PRA have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 13.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.