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Indiana PacersBen Sheppard
#26 · G · 6-6 · 190 lb · 10 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 10 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2023 · Rd 1, Pick 26
- College
- Belmont
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 7.0 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBen Sheppard isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Knee
- Est. return:
- Jan 2, 2027
Sheppard required a full repair and is without a definitive timetable for a return to action. With Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) expected to miss at least two weeks, Quenton Jackson figures to see a significant uptick in playing time. Two-way player Braden Smith could also see increased action with the parent club.
Verdict
vs 6.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency8argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
6.3 PTS(×0.92 context)
L5 7.6 · L10 7.0 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.8 · ceil 9.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 9/10 | ||
| 80% | 8/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 6.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 20% | 2/10 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
1 day50%1/2Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — vs DEN
Nov 7, 2026
25thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
DEN allows 10.9 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 34 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ben Sheppard has gone over 6.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DEN has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 25th-most PTS of 30 teams (10.9 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.