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Oklahoma City ThunderBranden Carlson
#15 · C · 7-0 · 220 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Utah
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 10.1 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 9.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 34% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line34argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
15.0 PTS(×1.10 context)
L5 13.2 · L10 11.1 · med 10.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.8 · ceil 13.4
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 9.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 27% | 4/15 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
1 day100%3/3Low
2 days0%0/2Low
3+ days33%3/9Low
Last matchup — vs PHX
Apr 12, 2026
27thof 30 in PTS allowed to centers
PHX allows 11.5 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 63 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Branden Carlson has gone over 9.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 47% across the full season. PHX has been a tough matchup for centers this season, allowing the 27th-most PTS of 30 teams (11.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.