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Houston RocketsClint Capela
#30 · C · 6-10 · 256 lb · 34 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2014 · Rd 1, Pick 25
- College
- Elan Chalon
- Country
- Switzerland
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 5.5 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 4.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 44% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
7.7 PTS(×0.95 context)
L5 7.2 · L10 6.9 · med 5.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.0 · ceil 8.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season34 games
50%over
17 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–66%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97% | 33/34 | ||
| 76% | 26/34 | ||
| 71% | 24/34 | ||
| 4.5Current | 50% | 17/34 | |
| 47% | 16/34 | ||
| 26% | 9/34 | ||
| 24% | 8/34 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home41%7/17Medium
Away59%10/17Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)67%4/6Low
1 day75%6/8Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days28%5/18Medium
Last matchup — vs MEM
Apr 12, 2026
14thof 30 in PTS allowed to centers
MEM allows 13.0 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 68 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Clint Capela has gone over 4.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MEM has been a middling matchup for centers this season, allowing the 14th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.