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Utah JazzCody Williams
#5 · F · 6-8 · 190 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2024 · Rd 1, Pick 10
- College
- Colorado
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 14.6 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 13.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency12argues against it
Projection
15.7 PTS(×1.01 context)
L5 16.4 · L10 18.0 · med 17.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 7.2 · ceil 21.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season24 games
50%over
12 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–69%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 16/24 | ||
| 67% | 16/24 | ||
| 63% | 15/24 | ||
| 13.5Current | 50% | 12/24 | |
| 38% | 9/24 | ||
| 29% | 7/24 | ||
| 29% | 7/24 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%5/10Low
Away50%7/14Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day50%6/12Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days38%3/8Low
Last matchup — @ LAL
Apr 12, 2026
16thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
LAL allows 13.7 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 171 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Cody Williams has gone over 13.5 PTS 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAL has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 16th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.7 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.