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Miami HeatDavion Mitchell
#45 · G · 6-0 · 202 lb · 31 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2021 · Rd 1, Pick 9
- College
- Baylor
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 11.6 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 11.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 40% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line40neutral
Consistency47neutral
Projection
14.2 PTS(×1.06 context)
L5 13.6 · L10 13.8 · med 13.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 8.0 · ceil 15.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season31 games
45%over
14 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–62%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 23/31 | ||
| 68% | 21/31 | ||
| 58% | 18/31 | ||
| 11.5Current | 45% | 14/31 | |
| 35% | 11/31 | ||
| 29% | 9/31 | ||
| 26% | 8/31 |
Situational splits
Over 11.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home53%8/15Low
Away38%6/16Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/3Low
1 day56%5/9Low
2 days40%2/5Low
3+ days46%6/13Low
Last matchup — @ TOR
Apr 9, 2026
6thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
TOR allows 14.7 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 224 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Davion Mitchell has gone over 11.5 PTS 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 45% across the full season. TOR has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 6th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.7 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.