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Cleveland CavaliersDean Wade
#32 · F-C · 6-9 · 228 lb · 33 games
Stats updated: Apr 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Kansas State
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 7.2 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 6.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency18argues against it
Projection
7.0 PTS(×0.93 context)
L5 7.8 · L10 7.5 · med 7.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 10.6
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season33 games
48%over
16 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–65%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 29/33 | ||
| 76% | 25/33 | ||
| 64% | 21/33 | ||
| 6.5Current | 48% | 16/33 | |
| 45% | 15/33 | ||
| 39% | 13/33 | ||
| 30% | 10/33 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home41%7/17Medium
Away56%9/16Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)67%2/3Low
1 day31%4/13Medium
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days62%8/13Low
Last matchup — @ NOP
Mar 21, 2026
8thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
NOP allows 14.3 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 164 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Dean Wade has gone over 6.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 48% across the full season. NOP has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 8th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.3 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.