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Golden State WarriorsDe'Anthony Melton
#8 · G · 6-2 · 200 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2018 · Rd 2, Pick 46
- College
- Southern California
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 14.4 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 14.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)49neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency18argues against it
Projection
15.1 PTS(×1.05 context)
L5 11.4 · L10 13.6 · med 13.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 8.8 · ceil 20.4
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season24 games
50%over
12 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–69%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 15/24 | ||
| 58% | 14/24 | ||
| 54% | 13/24 | ||
| 14.5Current | 50% | 12/24 | |
| 50% | 12/24 | ||
| 46% | 11/24 | ||
| 33% | 8/24 |
Situational splits
Over 14.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home47%7/15Low
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
1 day50%4/8Low
2 days100%4/4Low
3+ days27%3/11Low
Last matchup — @ SAC
Apr 10, 2026
21stof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
SAC allows 13.8 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 230 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, De'Anthony Melton has gone over 14.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. SAC has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 21st-most PTS of 30 teams (13.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.