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Boston CelticsDerrick White
#9 · G · 6-4 · 190 lb · 48 games
Stats updated: Apr 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2017 · Rd 1, Pick 29
- College
- Colorado
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 17.3 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 16.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 14/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency30argues against it
Projection
12.3 PTS(×0.98 context)
L5 8.6 · L10 13.1 · med 11.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 10.4 · ceil 22.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
10%over
1 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%Last 2020 games
35%over
7 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%Season48 games
48%over
23 over · 25 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–62%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 34/48 | ||
| 69% | 33/48 | ||
| 56% | 27/48 | ||
| 16.5Current | 48% | 23/48 | |
| 46% | 22/48 | ||
| 35% | 17/48 | ||
| 31% | 15/48 |
Situational splits
Over 16.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home65%13/20Medium
Away36%10/28Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)75%3/4Low
1 day63%12/19Medium
2 days40%2/5Low
3+ days26%5/19Medium
Last matchup — @ NYK
Apr 9, 2026
8thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
NYK allows 14.4 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 208 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Derrick White has gone over 16.5 PTS 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 48% across the full season. NYK has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 8th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.4 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.