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Philadelphia 76ersDominick Barlow
#25 · F · 6-9 · 224 lb · 40 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Overtime Elite
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 9.7 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDominick Barlow isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Back Fracture
- Est. return:
- Nov 18, 2026
Nurse added that the team is "pretty positive" that Barlow's back is getting better, though he's still going to have to wait some more time before being cleared. The big man has yet to make his season debut due to a lumbar spine bone stress response, and he isn't expected to return until mid-November at the earliest.
Verdict
vs 9.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency24argues against it
Projection
7.7 PTS(×0.99 context)
L5 7.6 · L10 8.2 · med 8.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 7.0 · ceil 12.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season40 games
53%over
21 over · 19 under
Medium confidence95% CI 37%–67%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 34/40 | ||
| 75% | 30/40 | ||
| 63% | 25/40 | ||
| 9.5Current | 53% | 21/40 | |
| 40% | 16/40 | ||
| 23% | 9/40 | ||
| 18% | 7/40 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%9/18Medium
Away55%12/22Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/4Low
1 day90%9/10Medium
2 days50%4/8Low
3+ days41%7/17Medium
Last matchup — @ HOU
Apr 9, 2026
17thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
HOU allows 12.8 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 23 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Dominick Barlow has gone over 9.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 53% across the full season. HOU has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 17th-most PTS of 30 teams (12.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.