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Cleveland CavaliersDonovan Mitchell
#45 · G · 6-2 · 215 lb · 40 games
Stats updated: Apr 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2017 · Rd 1, Pick 13
- College
- Louisville
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 29.6 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 30.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency49neutral
Projection
29.9 PTS(×1.00 context)
L5 31.8 · L10 28.1 · med 26.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 20.8 · ceil 36.2
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season40 games
53%over
21 over · 19 under
Medium confidence95% CI 37%–67%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 25/40 | ||
| 60% | 24/40 | ||
| 55% | 22/40 | ||
| 30.5Current | 53% | 21/40 | |
| 45% | 18/40 | ||
| 38% | 15/40 | ||
| 30% | 12/40 |
Situational splits
Over 30.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home58%11/19Medium
Away48%10/21Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%2/2Low
1 day46%6/13Low
2 days38%3/8Low
3+ days56%9/16Medium
Last matchup — vs ATL
Apr 8, 2026
12thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
ATL allows 14.0 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 207 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Donovan Mitchell has gone over 30.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 53% across the full season. ATL has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 12th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 9.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.