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Dallas MavericksDwight Powell
#7 · F-C · 6-10 · 240 lb · 27 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2014 · Rd 2, Pick 45
- College
- Stanford
- Country
- Canada
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 6.1 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 5.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)65supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
5.5 PTS(×0.99 context)
L5 4.8 · L10 6.2 · med 5.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.0 · ceil 9.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season27 games
44%over
12 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–63%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 20/27 | ||
| 74% | 20/27 | ||
| 59% | 16/27 | ||
| 5.5Current | 44% | 12/27 | |
| 41% | 11/27 | ||
| 33% | 9/27 | ||
| 33% | 9/27 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%9/15Medium
Away25%3/12Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day44%4/9Low
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days33%4/12Low
Last matchup — vs CHI
Apr 12, 2026
1stof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
CHI allows 15.5 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 169 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Dwight Powell has gone over 5.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 44% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 1st-most PTS of 30 teams (15.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.