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Charlotte HornetsGrant Williams
#2 · F · 6-7 · 236 lb · 13 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2019 · Rd 1, Pick 22
- College
- Tennessee
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 8.4 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 8.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 41% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line41neutral
Consistency5argues against it
Projection
7.3 PTS(×0.94 context)
L5 7.6 · L10 9.0 · med 9.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.4 · ceil 11.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 10/13 | ||
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 8.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 31% | 4/13 | ||
| 23% | 3/13 | ||
| 23% | 3/13 |
Situational splits
Over 8.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/2Low
2 days0%0/2Low
3+ days88%7/8Medium
Last matchup — @ NYK
Apr 12, 2026
21stof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
NYK allows 13.6 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 172 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Grant Williams has gone over 8.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 54% across the full season. NYK has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 21st-most PTS of 30 teams (13.6 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.