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Miami HeatJaime Jaquez Jr.
#11 · G · 6-6 · 225 lb · 46 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2023 · Rd 1, Pick 18
- College
- UCLA
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 17.6 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 18.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency40neutral
Projection
20.0 PTS(×1.01 context)
L5 21.6 · L10 17.7 · med 18.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 13.0 · ceil 22.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season46 games
50%over
23 over · 23 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–64%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 29/46 | ||
| 57% | 26/46 | ||
| 54% | 25/46 | ||
| 18.5Current | 50% | 23/46 | |
| 39% | 18/46 | ||
| 33% | 15/46 | ||
| 26% | 12/46 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home42%11/26Medium
Away60%12/20Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)63%5/8Low
1 day60%9/15Medium
2 days50%5/10Low
3+ days33%4/12Low
Last matchup — @ WAS
Apr 10, 2026
29thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
WAS allows 12.8 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 223 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jaime Jaquez Jr. has gone over 18.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. WAS has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 29th-most PTS of 30 teams (12.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.