
Stats updated: Apr 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jalen Brunson has gone over 40.5 PRA in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
Ranked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
PRA over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66% | 25/38 | ||
| 63% | 24/38 | ||
| 61% | 23/38 | ||
| 40.5Current | 47% | 18/38 | |
| 37% | 14/38 | ||
| 26% | 10/38 | ||
| 21% | 8/38 |
Over 40.5 PRA by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
BOS allows 21.1 PRA per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 213 player-games
ToughOver his last 10 games, Jalen Brunson has gone over 40.5 PRA 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 47% across the full season. BOS has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 23rd-most PRA of 30 teams (21.1 per game). His game-to-game PRA have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 7.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Rebounds hit rates and trends.
Assists hit rates and trends.
3-Pointers Made hit rates and trends.
Steals hit rates and trends.
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.