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Detroit PistonsJalen Duren
#0 · C · 6-10 · 250 lb · 13 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 13 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2022 · Rd 1, Pick 13
- College
- Memphis
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 23.2 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJalen Duren isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Hamstring Strain
- Est. return:
- Nov 24, 2026
Duren is progressing in his rehab after suffering a right hamstring strain Oct. 23, though he'll remain on the inactive list for at least the next two weeks while ramping up toward a return to game action. Paul Reed should continue to play a sizable role in Duren's stead.
Verdict
vs 21.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency51neutral
Matchup50neutral
Projection
21.2 PTS(×0.97 context)
L5 19.8 · L10 21.6 · med 21.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 18.8 · ceil 30.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 10/13 | ||
| 77% | 10/13 | ||
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 21.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 |
Situational splits
Over 21.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%6/8Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day38%3/8Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days50%1/2Low
Next matchup — vs WAS
Nov 10, 2026
18thof 30 in PTS allowed to centers
WAS allows 10.0 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 11 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jalen Duren has gone over 21.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 54% across the full season. WAS has been a middling matchup for centers this season, allowing the 18th-most PTS of 30 teams (10.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.