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Detroit PistonsJalen Duren
#0 · C · 6-10 · 250 lb · 25 games
Stats updated: Apr 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2022 · Rd 1, Pick 13
- College
- Memphis
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 21.7 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 20.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 40% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line40neutral
Consistency56neutral
Projection
23.8 PTS(×1.04 context)
L5 25.4 · L10 23.6 · med 21.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 17.0 · ceil 26.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season25 games
48%over
12 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–67%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 19/25 | ||
| 64% | 16/25 | ||
| 56% | 14/25 | ||
| 20.5Current | 48% | 12/25 | |
| 36% | 9/25 | ||
| 28% | 7/25 | ||
| 24% | 6/25 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%9/16Medium
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low
1 day83%5/6Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days27%4/15Medium
Last matchup — @ ORL
Apr 6, 2026
17thof 30 in PTS allowed to centers
ORL allows 13.0 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 76 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jalen Duren has gone over 20.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 48% across the full season. ORL has been a middling matchup for centers this season, allowing the 17th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.