Atlanta Hawks

Jalen Johnson Turnovers

Stats updated: Oct 31, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jalen Johnson has gone over 3.5 TOV in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2021 · Rd 1, Pick 20
College: Duke
Country: USA
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksTurnovers · season avg 3.4 TOV · PrizePicks line

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OutJalen Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Ankle
Est. return:: Nov 7, 2026

This will be Johnson's third straight game on the sidelines, and for now, he should be considered questionable for Saturday's meeting with the Nets. Luguentz Dort should continue to start in his absence, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Onyeka Okongwu will see a larger role on offense.

Verdict

vs 3.5 TOVTurnovers

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)91supports it

Projection vs line68supports it

Consistency49neutral

Matchup100supports it

Projection

3.7 TOV(×1.09 context)

L5 3.0 · L10 3.2 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.2 · ceil 4.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2012 games

50%over

6 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%

Season12 games

50%over

6 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%

Alternate lines — Turnovers (TOV)

TOV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TOV line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	12/12
	100%	12/12
	75%	9/12
3.5Current	50%	6/12
	17%	2/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — TOV per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 TOV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away50%3/6Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)100%2/2Low

1 day17%1/6Low

3+ days67%2/3Low

With a teammate out

How this TOV line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jock Landale out · Left Hip+0.3 TOV when he sits

Without (8g)

3.5 TOV

50% over 3.5

With (4g)

3.3 TOV

50% over 3.5

Next matchup — vs WAS

Nov 7, 2026

3rdof 30 in TOV allowed to forwards

WAS allows 2.0 TOV per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 23 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jalen Johnson has gone over 3.5 TOV 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. WAS has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 3rd-most TOV of 30 teams (2.0 per game). His game-to-game TOV have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.