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Denver NuggetsJalen Pickett
#24 · G · 6-2 · 202 lb · 27 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2023 · Rd 2, Pick 32
- College
- Penn State
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 8.1 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 7.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
7.6 PTS(×0.90 context)
L5 7.8 · L10 6.5 · med 7.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.2 · ceil 11.8
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season27 games
48%over
13 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–66%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 20/27 | ||
| 67% | 18/27 | ||
| 63% | 17/27 | ||
| 7.5Current | 48% | 13/27 | |
| 44% | 12/27 | ||
| 33% | 9/27 | ||
| 26% | 7/27 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home36%5/14Medium
Away62%8/13Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)80%4/5Low
1 day38%5/13Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days57%4/7Low
Last matchup — @ SAS
Apr 12, 2026
11thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
SAS allows 14.1 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 220 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jalen Pickett has gone over 7.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 48% across the full season. SAS has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 11th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.1 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.