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Portland Trail BlazersJerami Grant
#9 · F · 6-7 · 213 lb · 32 games
Stats updated: Mar 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2014 · Rd 2, Pick 39
- College
- Syracuse
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 21.3 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 20.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 15/100· model 47% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency46neutral
Projection
19.2 PTS(×0.97 context)
L5 18.0 · L10 21.0 · med 21.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 16.2 · ceil 26.8
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
70%over
14 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–85%Season32 games
53%over
17 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–69%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 24/32 | ||
| 66% | 21/32 | ||
| 63% | 20/32 | ||
| 20.5Current | 53% | 17/32 | |
| 38% | 12/32 | ||
| 38% | 12/32 | ||
| 31% | 10/32 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home54%7/13Low
Away53%10/19Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low
1 day64%9/14Medium
2 days75%3/4Low
3+ days45%5/11Low
Last matchup — @ MIN
Mar 20, 2026
12thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
MIN allows 14.0 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 166 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jerami Grant has gone over 20.5 PTS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 53% across the full season. MIN has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 12th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.