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Minnesota TimberwolvesJoan Beringer
#19 · F · 6-11 · 230 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2025 · Rd 1, Pick 17
- College
- Cedevita Olimpija (Slovenia)
- Country
- France
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 8.4 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJoan Beringer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Fracture
- Est. return:
- Nov 8, 2026
Although Beringer's nasal fracture will prevent him from returning to Friday's contest, he may be able to play through the injury during future games while wearing a mask. Trey Lyles stands to benefit from increased minutes in the meantime.
Verdict
vs 9.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency28argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
9.6 PTS(×1.08 context)
L5 8.4 · L10 8.4 · med 10.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 6.0 · ceil 11.2
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 9.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days50%1/2Low
Next matchup — @ NOP
Nov 7, 2026
15thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
NOP allows 12.8 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 26 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Joan Beringer has gone over 9.5 PTS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. NOP has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 15th-most PTS of 30 teams (12.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Line shopping — Points (PTS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (9 PTS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.