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Boston CelticsJordan Walsh
#27 · G · 6-6 · 205 lb · 25 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2023 · Rd 2, Pick 38
- College
- Arkansas
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 8.6 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 6.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)49neutral
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
8.5 PTS(×1.09 context)
L5 6.2 · L10 6.7 · med 6.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 5.0 · ceil 13.2
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season25 games
52%over
13 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–70%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 23/25 | ||
| 84% | 21/25 | ||
| 76% | 19/25 | ||
| 6.5Current | 52% | 13/25 | |
| 44% | 11/25 | ||
| 36% | 9/25 | ||
| 24% | 6/25 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home46%6/13Low
Away58%7/12Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%3/3Low
1 day60%3/5Low
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days38%5/13Low
Last matchup — vs ORL
Apr 12, 2026
1stof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
ORL allows 15.4 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 235 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jordan Walsh has gone over 6.5 PTS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 52% across the full season. ORL has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 1st-most PTS of 30 teams (15.4 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 52%.