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Portland Trail BlazersJrue Holiday
#5 · G · 6-4 · 220 lb · 26 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2009 · Rd 1, Pick 17
- College
- UCLA
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 17 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 19.0 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 19.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 52% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency33argues against it
Projection
18.9 PTS(×1.02 context)
L5 18.2 · L10 19.6 · med 21.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 12.0 · ceil 25.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season26 games
50%over
13 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–68%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62% | 16/26 | ||
| 58% | 15/26 | ||
| 54% | 14/26 | ||
| 19.5Current | 50% | 13/26 | |
| 46% | 12/26 | ||
| 42% | 11/26 | ||
| 35% | 9/26 |
Situational splits
Over 19.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home55%6/11Low
Away47%7/15Low
Days since last game
1 day42%5/12Low
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days67%6/9Low
Last matchup — vs SAC
Apr 12, 2026
21stof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
SAC allows 13.8 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 230 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jrue Holiday has gone over 19.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SAC has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 21st-most PTS of 30 teams (13.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.