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Denver NuggetsJulian Strawther
#3 · G · 6-6 · 205 lb · 7 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 4 of these 7 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2023 · Rd 1, Pick 29
- College
- Gonzaga
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 15.0 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJulian Strawther isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Knee Sprain
- Est. return:
- Nov 29, 2026
Strawther suffered the injury in Wednesday's preseason game against the Clippers. The 24-year-old has appeared in 172 regular-season games for the Nuggets since entering the league in 2023, averaging 7.1 points, 2.0 rebounds and 1.1 assists over 16.2 minutes per contest. He was in line to compete for an expanded role during the 2026-27 campaign. While that may be the case once Strawther is cleared to suit up, Tyus Jones and potentially Ryan Nembhard are candidates to receive more minutes in the interim.
Verdict
vs 13.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency34argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
16.7 PTS(×1.13 context)
L5 17.4 · L10 15.0 · med 14.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 11.0 · ceil 20.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 13.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
1 day100%2/2Low
3+ days50%2/4Low
Next matchup — @ IND
Nov 7, 2026
6thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
IND allows 13.3 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 31 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Julian Strawther has gone over 13.5 PTS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. IND has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 6th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.3 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.