Washington Wizards

Justin Champagnie Turnovers

Stats updated: Oct 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Justin Champagnie has gone over 0.5 TOV in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Pittsburgh
Country: USA
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksTurnovers · season avg 0.8 TOV · PrizePicks line

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OutJustin Champagnie isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Foot Not Specified
Est. return:: Feb 25, 2027

The forward underwent surgery Wednesday to address a fractured foot, and the Wizards hope Champagnie will be ready to return at some time around the All-Star break in February. The likes of Bilal Coulibaly, Tre Johnson and Bub Carrington will all be asked to help pick up the slack for the foreseeable future.

Verdict

vs 0.5 TOVTurnovers

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)65supports it

Projection vs line55neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup100supports it

Projection

0.7 TOV(×1.09 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 105 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 205 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Season5 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Alternate lines — Turnovers (TOV)

TOV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TOV line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	40%	2/5
	20%	1/5
	20%	1/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — TOV per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 TOV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low

1 day50%1/2Low

3+ days0%0/1Low

Next matchup — @ ATL

Nov 7, 2026

6thof 30 in TOV allowed to guards

ATL allows 1.8 TOV per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 29 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 5 games, Justin Champagnie has gone over 0.5 TOV 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 6th-most TOV of 30 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game TOV have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.