Utah Jazz

Jusuf Nurkić Steals

Stats updated: Oct 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jusuf Nurkić has gone over 1.5 STL in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2014 · Rd 1, Pick 16
College: Cedevita
Country: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Experience: 13 seasons

Line

PrizePicksSteals · season avg 1.3 STL · our line

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OutJusuf Nurkić isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Foot Strain
Est. return:: Nov 20, 2026

Nurkic is progressing in his recovery, but the two-week re-evaluation timeline indicates he remains some distance from returning to game action. His absence should continue to create opportunities in Utah's frontcourt, with Jaxson Hayes and Mo Bamba among the players positioned to benefit from additional playing time. Nurkic's next evaluation will provide a clearer picture of his potential return date.

Verdict

vs 1.5 STLSteals

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 72% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line72supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup100supports it

Projection

1.2 STL(×0.93 context)

L5 1.4 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 1.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2012 games

25%over

3 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 9%–53%

Season12 games

25%over

3 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 9%–53%

Alternate lines — Steals (STL)

STL over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate STL line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	83%	10/12
1.5Current	25%	3/12
	17%	2/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — STL per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 STL by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/6Medium

Away50%3/6Low

Days since last game

1 day33%1/3Low

3+ days25%2/8Low

Next matchup — @ MIN

Nov 9, 2026

27thof 30 in STL allowed to centers

MIN allows 0.3 STL per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 16 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jusuf Nurkić has gone over 1.5 STL 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 25% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for centers this season, allowing the 27th-most STL of 30 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game STL have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.