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Atlanta HawksKeshon Gilbert
G · 6-4 · 200 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa State
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Points · season avg 7.5 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Keshon Gilbert's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Hip
A hip injury cost Gilbert his final three games in Las Vegas. In his one appearance for the Hawks at Summer League, he finished with 10 points, five rebounds, five assists and two steals in 20 minutes off the bench.
Verdict
vs 7.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency22argues against it
Projection
7.7 PTS
L5 7.5 · L10 7.5 · med 7.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.4 · ceil 9.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 7.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%1/1Low
Last matchup — @ MIA
Apr 12, 2026
4thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
MIA allows 14.9 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 219 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 2 games, Keshon Gilbert has gone over 7.5 PTS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 4th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.9 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.