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Milwaukee BucksKevin Porter Jr.
#7 · G-F · 6-5 · 203 lb · 21 games
Stats updated: Mar 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2019 · Rd 1, Pick 30
- College
- Southern California
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 20.7 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Kevin Porter Jr.'s status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Knee Surgery
Porter (knee) had a quality 2025-26 season from a statistical standpoint, averaging 17.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 0.5 blocks and a career-high 2.2 steals across 33.2 minutes. However, the 26-year-old logged only 38 games and underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee in April. It's unknown when Porter will be cleared to suit up, though durability concerns could keep him on the bench regularly for the Bucks during the 2026-27 campaign, especially with Ryan Rollins and Tyler Herro in the equation. Still, if Porter stays healthy, he can provide valuable minutes for a team that no longer has Giannis Antetokounmpo on the roster.
Verdict
vs 21.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency47neutral
Projection
22.0 PTS(×0.98 context)
L5 24.6 · L10 21.8 · med 22.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 15.0 · ceil 25.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season21 games
52%over
11 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–72%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 14/21 | ||
| 62% | 13/21 | ||
| 52% | 11/21 | ||
| 21.5Current | 52% | 11/21 | |
| 43% | 9/21 | ||
| 38% | 8/21 | ||
| 29% | 6/21 |
Situational splits
Over 21.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away50%6/12Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day33%3/9Low
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days100%4/4Low
Last matchup — vs CLE
Mar 17, 2026
16thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
CLE allows 13.9 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 228 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kevin Porter Jr. has gone over 21.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 52% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 16th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.9 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 52%.