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Utah JazzLauri Markkanen
#23 · F-C · 7-1 · 240 lb · 33 games
Stats updated: Feb 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2017 · Rd 1, Pick 7
- College
- Arizona
- Country
- Finland
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 28.7 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 28.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 10/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency56neutral
Projection
26.9 PTS(×0.98 context)
L5 27.0 · L10 27.2 · med 28.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 21.4 · ceil 33.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season33 games
55%over
18 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 38%–70%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 23/33 | ||
| 67% | 22/33 | ||
| 61% | 20/33 | ||
| 28.5Current | 55% | 18/33 | |
| 39% | 13/33 | ||
| 33% | 11/33 | ||
| 30% | 10/33 |
Situational splits
Over 28.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%9/16Medium
Away53%9/17Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)60%3/5Low
1 day70%7/10Low
2 days71%5/7Low
3+ days30%3/10Low
Last matchup — @ HOU
Feb 23, 2026
6thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
HOU allows 14.6 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 176 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Lauri Markkanen has gone over 28.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 6th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.6 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.