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Phoenix SunsMark Williams
#15 · C · 7-1 · 240 lb · 36 games
Stats updated: Apr 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2022 · Rd 1, Pick 15
- College
- Duke
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 14.2 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMark Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Shoulder Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
This is a tough blow for the center with training camp right around the corner. With his status for Opening Night in jeopardy, this will put a lot of eyes on Oso Ighodaro and Khaman Maluach, with the latter already drawing buzz during the Summer League. More clarity on Williams' timeline should be known in the coming weeks.
Verdict
vs 13.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency29argues against it
Projection
13.7 PTS(×0.97 context)
L5 13.2 · L10 12.9 · med 11.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 9.0 · ceil 20.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season36 games
47%over
17 over · 19 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–63%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 25/36 | ||
| 58% | 21/36 | ||
| 56% | 20/36 | ||
| 13.5Current | 47% | 17/36 | |
| 39% | 14/36 | ||
| 39% | 14/36 | ||
| 33% | 12/36 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home30%6/20Medium
Away69%11/16Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day47%8/17Medium
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days53%8/15Low
Last matchup — vs HOU
Apr 7, 2026
10thof 30 in PTS allowed to centers
HOU allows 13.4 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 67 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Mark Williams has gone over 13.5 PTS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 47% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for centers this season, allowing the 10th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.4 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.